Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 37.424289 40.740569 44.426928 48.872558 54.150056 60.297041 68.126040
2025-08-24 31.999618 36.142294 41.069470 47.501077 55.903701 66.878188 83.019401
2025-08-31 30.210737 35.057574 41.124108 49.560124 61.522931 78.907347 108.628268
2025-09-07 27.712104 32.669722 39.066130 48.316246 62.153666 83.818917 125.432090
2025-09-14 25.826991 30.828967 37.441088 47.316094 62.777591 88.665554 144.411437
2025-09-21 23.859080 28.693642 35.179088 45.059694 60.985133 88.862537 153.995044
2025-09-28 22.789838 27.673031 34.349995 44.793806 62.302444 94.937115 181.283534
2025-10-05 22.770712 28.068021 35.532675 47.717326 69.543967 115.085913 270.987663
2025-10-12 21.794871 27.045353 34.544994 47.029851 70.114193 121.128299 324.671351
2025-10-19 21.200599 26.523742 34.255151 47.446754 72.852573 133.530931 441.306938
2025-10-26 20.972204 26.509106 34.723296 49.193847 78.632529 157.270071 781.361922
2025-11-02 20.448672 26.023855 34.412794 49.516763 81.455501 174.334174 1371.654287
2025-11-09 19.361818 24.778694 33.025343 48.147018 81.206144 185.108858 2866.445402
2025-11-16 18.346632 23.604439 31.698928 46.806805 80.946271 197.391967 17480.075830
2025-11-23 18.062003 23.510461 32.108749 48.813317 89.621404 262.226748 NaN
2025-11-30 17.253069 22.549450 30.981300 47.601445 89.410475 283.040302 NaN
2025-12-07 16.559477 21.729032 30.029661 46.626608 89.629106 309.328993 NaN
2025-12-14 15.726631 20.649209 28.564050 44.425911 85.721396 300.240975 NaN
2025-12-21 15.264973 20.135513 28.045146 44.166456 87.670831 345.456970 NaN
2025-12-28 15.298793 20.409798 28.917814 47.017730 100.759059 591.355222 NaN
2026-01-04 14.831426 19.846829 28.252100 46.347539 101.589682 692.196032 NaN
2026-01-11 14.540517 19.558208 28.063950 46.753983 106.683918 1003.886878 NaN
2026-01-18 14.429087 19.558135 28.403095 48.456521 118.032715 2517.206015 NaN